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sabato 21 gennaio 2012

Impatto immigratorio nel Regno Unito

Impatto immigratorio nel Regno Unito: differenti analisi

Breve panoramica tra differenti punti di vista e analisi sull'impatto dell'immigrazione europea ed extracomunitaria nel mercato del lavoro britannico.

Partiamo dall'analisi, risalente ad un anno fa, del gruppo di pressione Migration Watch UK, affermante quanto sia una coincidenza interessante, se di sola coincidenza si tratti, la perdita , tra il 2004 e il 2010, di circa 400.000 posti di lavoro un tempo occupati da giovani britannici e, al contempo, l'assunzione di circa 600.000 immigrati dell'Est Europa. Non solo: di questi ultimi, ben un terzo nel biennio 2008-2010, ossia in piena crisi economica.

Risponde a questi dati lo NIESR, l'Istituto Nazionale di Ricerche Sociali ed Economiche, affermando che tale lettura è errata, in quanto non è individuabile un legame diretto tra disoccupazione autoctona e assunzioni di stranieri, incolpando semmai proprio la crisi economica (ma, d'altronde, Migration Watch UK ha parlato di coincidenza da valutare e non di collegamento palese, così come, non è chiaro perché dovessero essere, in piena crisi, gli autoctoni a perdere lavoro e gli stranieri a guadagnarlo). (1)

Ora, giunge una nuova analisi, stavolta ad opera del MAC, ossia la commissione nazionale preposta ad analizzare il fenomeno immigratorio. Secondo la commissione, ogni quattro nuovi stranieri extracomunitari in arrivo nel Regno Unito, un lavoratore autoctono perde il proprio posto di lavoro. L'analisi prodotta dal MAC è la prima ufficiale realizzata per descrivere l'impatto dell'immigrazione di massa sulla società britannica. Tale analisi rimette anche in discussione uno dei teoremi maggiormente sbandierati dagli immigrazionisti, ossia la crescita del PIL grazie alla presenza allogena. Tale idea sarebbe errata, in quanto l'impatto andrebbe verificato sul benessere complessivo della popolazione residente (dato che il PIL non necessariamente, aggiungiamo noi, corrisponde all'effettivo arricchimento o impoverimento della popolazione). Il MAC afferma, certo, anche che la disoccupazione prodotta non è necessariamente eterna, ma consiglia comunque una valutazione dei flussi immigratori che tenga conto della necessità di trovare una occupazione per gli auctoni, così come dello stato delle finanze pubbliche, locali e nazionali.

Qui potete trovare il rapporto completo del MAC: [COLLEGAMENTO] (in pdf)

(1) Si obietta in questi casi che molto dipenda dalle competenze dei lavoratori, autoctoni o stranieri. Che questo possa essere rilevante, non toglie che una società e uno Stato debbano essere capaci di riorganizzarsi internamente, in maniera da affrontare le varie crisi socio-economiche. L'importazione di lavoratori allogeni è solo una scorciatoia facile, che allontana ampie fette della popolazione dalle élites dominanti.

  • Immigation does keep Britons out of jobs, government committee admits (Tom Whitehead, The Telegraph, 10 gennaio 2012):
A Briton is “displaced” from the labour market for every four extra migrants from outside the EU that arrive in the UK, the Migration Advisory Committee (Mac) concluded.

The report is the first official examination of the impact of immigration and showed it has kept resident workers out of jobs.

Professor David Metcalf, chairman of the Mac, also criticised the use of GDP for measuring the effects of the influx of foreign nationals as “pro-immigration” because more migrants will logically expand the economy.

The findings are in contrast to a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) which claimed the number of immigrants coming to the UK had little or no impact on the number of unemployed.

However, the impact and displacement of British workers also does not last forever, the Mac report found.

"Those migrants who have been in the UK for over five years are not associated with displacement of British-born workers," it said.

In the last five years the number of non-EU migrants of working age increased by 700,000 meaning some 160,000 Britons missed out on jobs, the report concluded.

Prof Metcalf said: "Assessing the impacts of migration is not a simple decision and our conclusions will require careful consideration by the Government.

"However, our research suggests that non-EEA migration is associated with some displacement of British workers.

"Financial impacts of migration are also complicated but considering overall GDP does not present a true picture.

"Instead, the impact of migration on the economic wellbeing of the resident population should be the focus."

He went on: "Impact assessments must also consider wider effects such as the effects of skills transfer from migrants and their impacts on public finances, employability of UK workers, housing and transport.

"Although difficult to measure, these will ensure we can better understand the effects of migration."

While he said it was difficult to identify the occupations which would be most affected, he highlighted jobs in information and communications technology, and in hospitality and retail – where a large number of foreign students are employed part-time – as sectors which could see the most impact.

Health and care services have also employed large numbers of migrants, he said, but this was mainly at a time of shortage of UK workers so British jobs were unlikely to have been displaced.

The Mac was asked to look at the impact of immigration from outside the EU and how that information was used in official impact assessments of the Government's migration policies.

Prof Metcalf said the current system, which uses GDP to look at the impact on both UK residents and migrants, "can't be the right way of thinking about this".

It would be better to consider the impact on the economic wellbeing of the resident population alone, he said.

Any assessment of the economic and social impacts of immigration – and of specific immigration policies – critically depends on whose interests are taken into consideration, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford said.

Dr Scott Blinder, a senior researcher at the centre, said: "This report highlights the need to decide and articulate more clearly whose needs Government is prioritising when developing immigration policy.

"Trade-offs need to be confronted head on. Without more debate and clarity about whose interests policy is trying to maximise, we cannot hope to reach more agreement about the costs and benefits of specific policies."

Immigration Minister Damian Green said: "This Government is working to reduce net migration from the hundreds of thousands a year we saw under the last government, to the tens of thousands we saw in the 1990s.

"Controlled immigration can bring benefits to the UK, but uncontrolled immigration can put pressure on public services, on infrastructure and on community relations.

"This report makes clear that it can also put pressure on the local labour market.

"We thank the Mac for its work and will now consider the report more fully as we work to regain control over our immigration system."

  • Immigrants are not causing UK unemployment, says NIESR (Louisa Peacock, The Telegraph, 10 gennaio 2012):
The number of migrant workers coming to the UK over the past decade has had little or no impact on joblessness, with "no association" between rising immigration and an increase in Jobseeker's Allowance claims, the study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) found. NIESR said the Government had repeatedly drawn a link between immigration and unemployment, with ministers warning employers should not rely on foreign nationals to take up posts which could be filled by Britons. The think-tank's report conceded that immigration did have a "modest" impact on the less skilled, suggesting British workers faced more competition from migrants for low-skilled jobs. But the analysis, based on National Insurance registrations by foreign nationals, showed a "lack of any impact of migration on unemployment". The report comes after the campaign group Migration Watch UK said it would be a "remarkable coincidence" if there was no link between a 600,000 rise since May 2004 in the number of Eastern European migrants working in the UK and a 450,000 rise in youth unemployment in the same period. Sir Andrew Green, Migration Watch chairman, said migrants from the eight former Soviet-bloc countries which joined the EU eight years ago, including from Poland, Slovakia and Lithuania, "tended to be disproportionately young, well-educated, prepared to work for low wages and imbued with a strong work ethic". He added it would be "implausible and counter-intuitive" to suggest that so-called "A8 migration" had virtually no impact on rising UK youth unemployment. But Jonathan Portes, director of NIESR, dismissed Sir Andrew's comments as "nonsense". Youth unemployment in the UK has shot up since 2008 because of the recession and the lack of jobs, not because of migration, he said. Chris Grayling, the Employment Minister, was at the centre of a foreign jobs row last November when he said it was "unacceptable" for fast-food chains, including Pret A Manger, to hire so many migrant workers when joblessness had reached a 17-year high. Official figures show the total number of people out of work stands at 2.64m, while youth unemployment has reached 1.03m - more than a fifth of those aged between 16 and 24.  
 
  • Young workers hit by EU migration (Tom Whitehead, The Telegraph, 9 gennaio 2011):
More than 600,000 Eastern Europeans have taken jobs in the UK since 2004 while number of young Britons on the dole increased by 450,000 over the same period. A report by the think-tank Migration Watch UK said that while there is no direct link of one affecting the other, the coincidence was “remarkable”. Migrant workers from the former Eastern Bloc nations, such as Poland and Lithuania, tend to be young adults, relatively better educated and willing to work for lower wages, it concluded. Youth unemployment is running at record levels and increased from 575,000 in the first quarter of 2004 to 1,016,000 in the third quarter of 2011, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show. Over that same period, the number of workers from the so-called A8 countries who joined the EU in 2004 who now have jobs here has increased by over 600,000. Sir Andrew Green, chairman of Migration Watch, said: “"Correlation is not, of course, proof of causation but, given the positive employability characteristics and relative youth of migrants from these countries, it is implausible and counter-intuitive to conclude – as the previous Government and some economists have done – that A8 migration has had virtually no impact on UK youth unemployment in this period. "We hear a great deal from employers about the value of immigrant labour, especially from Eastern Europe, but there are also costs some of which have undoubtedly fallen on young British born workers." The report said that the economic recession was the “major cause” for youth unemployment but that the arrival of A8 migrants will also have been a factor. The A8 countries consist of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The report said workers from there are on average aged between 18 and 35, have an average school leaving age of 19, are “strongly motivated” and prepared to work for lower wages. Nine in ten A8 workers earned less than £400 a week in 2007 compared with 57 per cent of UK born workers, the report said. Figures in September showed twice as many Eastern Europeans came to Britain than left during the economic crisis, dispelling the myth that the recession drove them home. Almost a third of a million workers from the A8 arrived in the UK between 2008 and 2010 while just 145,000 left. It meant there was still a large net flow of migrant workers coming in to the country at a time when unemployment among Britons was increasing. A Home Office spokesman said: "This Government is working to reduce net migration from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands, levels we last saw in the 1990s. "Controlled migration can bring benefits to the UK economy, but uncontrolled immigration can put pressure on public services, infrastructure and community relations. "That is why we are ensuring graduates and the workforce get the opportunities and skills they need so that they can find work, and why we have maintained restrictions on workers from Romania and Bulgaria, and made it clear we will always introduce transitional controls on new European Union member states to stop unregulated access to British jobs."

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